Should We Stay or Should We Go Now

Tomorrow Brits vote in what is arguably one of the most important polls in recent history: the EU Referendum. With many people still on the fence and wondering how to sort the rhetoric from the conjecturing, are there any truly unbiased, factual sources to help you decide?

The Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) has funded a group of respected academics to give unbiased insights into how being in or out of the EU will affect us. The project is called The UK in a Changing Europe and supposedly offers independent and impartial advice from a non-partisan organisation. Another useful website is Full Fact, an independent fact-checker charity that has tried to clarify what’s what. After studying these two sites, what can we say for sure about immigration and the NHS?

Immigration
The majority of studies agree that immigration has little effect on the UK’s public finances and it is impossible to say with any certainty what effect it has on public services. If the UK leaves the EU, immigration numbers from non-EU countries will remain the same, however numbers from EU countries will probably drop, as workers will no longer be entitled to the freedom of movement principle and will have to obtain a work visa. This could potentially cause a problem here in sectors where there is a skills shortage. The UKCES Employer Skills Survey 2015 reports a worrying shortage of skilled workers, so who will fill the gaps? With regards to lower paid workers, there is some evidence that higher rates of immigrants could have a detrimental effect on lower wages, however those paid medium to higher wages actually gain.

National Health Service
Despite what has been said by Remain lobbyists, leaving the EU will not change government policy towards privatisation, organisation or what percentage of the GDP is allocated to it. That being said, it is possible there will be less to spend on public services if Britain follows Brexit, which is the exact opposite of what they’d have you believe. The Institute of Fiscal Studies think tank is absolutely convinced that leaving the EU will have a significant detrimental effect on the economy. Although we’d save the membership fee (the net fee for 2015 was £8.5 billion) the negative effect on the overall economy and potential tax revenue will far outweigh this gain. And if most economists are correct, the reduction in tax revenue will have a direct effect on public spending. This doesn’t necessarily mean a cut in NHS spending however, if the government was prepared to cut other public services instead, raise taxes or borrow more – a no-win situation. Another option would be to still contribute to the EU budget, like Norway, which might lessen the impact.

One thing we can say for certain about leaving the EU is that almost nothing is certain. All we can do is read as much unbiased, fact-based information as possible and hope we make the ‘right’ decision, depending on what that means to you.